Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 56.083819 62.425330 69.630794 78.524291 89.350301 102.298363 119.271466
2025-01-19 45.379433 52.933027 62.214027 74.767145 91.834663 115.127796 151.163643
2025-01-26 42.288312 51.123750 62.667442 79.516874 104.802377 144.044433 216.833633
2025-02-02 40.269665 50.104267 63.619635 84.689124 119.312015 180.420364 319.768610
2025-02-09 37.700140 47.876522 62.382976 86.146556 128.115319 210.832891 441.845188
2025-02-16 35.121120 45.279179 60.161215 85.488354 132.884390 235.577972 585.280370
2025-02-23 32.964660 43.042555 58.155332 84.745887 137.179901 261.597820 788.456732
2025-03-02 30.830127 40.631655 55.585162 82.563385 137.966468 279.576159 1015.480649
2025-03-09 29.115771 38.707790 53.581068 81.067007 139.812540 301.943246 1378.128817
2025-03-16 27.122659 36.215313 50.429726 77.021040 135.043947 301.939831 1589.216883
2025-03-23 26.683575 36.091146 51.159971 80.413610 148.500997 372.951286 3641.886952
2025-03-30 25.609007 34.884666 49.944469 79.800916 151.968002 411.169361 7268.810135
2025-04-06 24.319616 33.318213 48.088942 77.880548 152.208260 440.163473 17820.076330
2025-04-13 22.853516 31.396022 45.492513 74.163859 146.827506 439.502309 35335.248283
2025-04-20 22.751227 31.677291 46.793676 78.852078 166.917134 607.506685 NaN
2025-04-27 22.670729 31.981306 48.158275 83.955061 191.162291 895.274224 NaN
2025-05-04 22.127305 31.463873 47.942878 85.392529 204.094637 1164.818075 NaN
2025-05-11 21.386611 30.563481 46.922833 84.743367 209.216333 1386.737679 NaN
2025-05-18 20.693276 29.707589 45.923896 84.011050 213.892882 1660.583963 NaN
2025-05-25 19.898527 28.636829 44.434075 81.858091 212.018369 1812.185440 NaN
2025-06-01 19.227087 27.753030 43.258794 80.381712 212.691911 2068.747949 NaN
2025-06-08 18.337273 26.451271 41.188381 76.388764 201.165162 1899.156692 NaN
2025-06-15 18.237441 26.540006 41.890049 79.736982 224.454757 3430.990600 NaN